Key Takeaways
- Argentina, France, and Spain are among the leading favourites to win this year’s FIFA World Cup, according to the Opta Supercomputer model.
- France is the favourite to lift the trophy, followed by defending champions Argentina.
- The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final will be played on 19 July 2026 (or 20 July 2026 in Singapore).
The group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup has concluded, with the tournament now entering the Round of 32 as teams battle for a place in the last 16. Indeed, the remaining 16 teams are already taking shape as countries like France, Brazil, and England have booked their spots.
Opta Supercomputer has updated its rankings and predictions following the latest round of 32 matches, offering fresh insight into each team’s chances of lifting the trophy on 19 July 2026 (20 July in Singapore).
Let’s take a look at each team’s odds of winning below.
FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictions by the Opta Supercomputer
The Opta Supercomputer model estimates the likelihood of each team’s chances of finishing in every possible position. By combining betting odds with the Opta Power Rankings (which take into account both historical results and recent performances), Opta calculates the probability of each match outcome (win, lose, or draw) while factoring in the strength of each opponent.
The model also simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition 25,000 times to produce a range of likely outcomes.
Below are Opta’s latest predictions for each remaining team’s chances of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup (note that this may change without prior notice):
| Country | Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Winner |
| France | 100% | 86.57% | 67.86% | 44.54% | 28.98% |
| Argentina | 89.81% | 71.70% | 50.20% | 29.16% | 14.89% |
| Spain | 100% | 59.98% | 42.99% | 22.85% | 13.58% |
| Brazil | 100% | 64.25% | 35.54% | 19.97% | 9.28% |
| England | 100% | 55.03% | 29.83% | 17.30% | 8.36% |
| Portugal | 100% | 40.02% | 24.94% | 10.94% | 5.39% |
| Morocco | 100% | 66% | 19.82% | 8.03% | 3.14% |
| Norway | 100% | 35.75% | 16.74% | 7.95% | 3.06% |
| Colombia | 75.72% | 43.96% | 18.78% | 7.70% | 2.80% |
| Mexico | 100% | 44.97% | 17.90% | 7.76% | 2.64% |
| Switzerland | 100% | 42.80% | 17.16% | 6.50% | 2.18% |
| United States | 100% | 50.63% | 15.99% | 5.23% | 2.11% |
| Belgium | 100% | 49.37% | 16.08% | 5.24% | 2.05% |
| Canada | 100% | 34% | 7.14% | 1.90% | 0.52% |
| Egypt | 54.55% | 13.69% | 5.33% | 1.49% | 0.35% |
| Paraguay | 100% | 13.43% | 5.17% | 1.28% | 0.28% |
| Australia | 45.45% | 10.75% | 3.84% | 0.98% | 0.19% |
| Ghana | 21.62% | 8.04% | 2.31% | 0.60% | 0.12% |
| Cabo Verde | 10.19% | 3.86% | 1.18% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
Who Are the Favourites to Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Based on Opta’s predictions, France and Argentina emerge as the leading favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with estimated probabilities of 28.98% and 14.89%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Spain ranks third with an 13.58% chance of lifting the trophy. Brazil and England round out the top 5 favourites, with 9.28% and 8.36% chance, respectively.
However, knockout football is notoriously unpredictable, and this tournament has already delivered a few surprises, such as:
- Turkey, one of the dark horses of the tournament, crashed out prematurely in the group stage.
- Germany crashed out dramatically on penalties to Paraguay.
- Morocco eliminated the Netherlands, one of Opta’s top six favourites to win the tournament, also on penalties.
- Tournament debutants Cabo Verde, who have exceeded expectations and remained unbeaten after a string of stunning performances, including a 2-2 draw with Spain, one of the tournament favourites.
So while prediction models like Opta might indicate each team’s chances, they don’t decide the outcome. As shown so far, there have been plenty of surprises (and more yet to come), which is exactly what makes the FIFA World Cup so compelling.
Remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 Matches
| Match | Time |
| Spain vs Austria | 3 July, 3:00 AM |
| Portugal vs Croatia | 3 July, 7:00 AM |
| Switzerland vs Algeria | 3 July, 11:00 AM |
| Australia vs Egypt | 4 July, 2:00 AM |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde | 4 July, 6:00 AM |
| Colombia vs Ghana | 4 July, 9:30 AM |
| Canada vs Morocco | 5 July, 1:00 AM |
| Paraguay vs France | 5 July, 5:00 AM |
| Brazil vs Norway | 6 July, 4:00 AM |
| Mexico vs England | 6 July, 8:00 AM |
| Portugal vs Spain | 7 July, 3:00 AM |
| USA vs Belgium | 7 July, 8:00 AM |
| Argentina/Cape Verde vs Australia/Egypt | 8 July, 12:00 AM |
| Switzerland vs Colombia/Ghana | 8 July, 4:00 AM |
| Round of 16 1 Winner vs Round of 16 2 Winner | 10 July, 4:00 AM |
| Round of 16 5 Winner vs Round of 16 6 Winner | 11 July, 3:00 AM |
| Round of 16 3 Winner vs Round of 16 4 Winner | 12 July, 5:00 AM |
| Round of 16 7 Winner vs Round of 16 8 Winner | 12 July, 9:00 AM |
| Quarter-Final 1 Winner vs Quarter-Final 2 Winner | 15 July, 3:00 AM |
| Quarter-Final 3 Winner vs Quarter-Final 4 Winner | 16 July, 3:00 AM |
| Semi-Final 1 Loser vs Semi-Final 2 Loser (third-place play-off match) | 19 July, 5:00 AM |
| Semi-Final 1 Winner vs Semi-Final 2 Winner (Final) | 20 July, 3:00 AM |
Read these next:
9 Best Streaming Services in Singapore for Movies & TV
KTM Shuttle Tebrau: Ultimate Guide to Taking the Train from Singapore to JB
ETS JB to KL Guide: Tickets, Schedule & How to Take
SG Culture Pass Credit Guide: How to Claim & Where to Use
